PwC predicts the global economy to expand by around 5%

860

Positive expectations are reported in the “Global economy watch: Predictions for 2021” by PwC. «In our main scenario – the company explains – we expect the global economy to expand by around 5% in market exchange rates, which is the fastest rate recorded in the 21st century. Our projection is conditional on a successful deployment and spread of effective COVID-19 vaccines and continued accommodative fiscal, financial and monetary conditions. Nevertheless, the next three to six months will continue to be challenging, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere countries going through the winter months as they could be forced to further localised or full economy-wide lockdowns (as recently displayed in the UK). Output in some advanced economies, for example, could contract in Q1 of the year. We think that economic growth is more likely to pick up in the second half of the year, which is also when we expect large advanced economies to have vaccinated a substantial share of their population.» 
According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest estimates, Italian GDP could reach 2 trillion dollar, re-joining seven other economies including the US, China, Germany and India. The latter was also the fifth largest economy in market exchange rates in 2019, having overtaken both the UK and France. But changes in exchange rates along with the impact of the pandemic means that India is likely to be the seventh largest economy in the world in market exchange rates in 2021, overtaken this time by the UK and France. This is likely to be temporary as, based on current trends, India is again poised to overtake France and Germany before the middle of this decade.

GDP of the largest economies in the world in nominal USD terms
2019a2020p2021p
US21.420.821.9
China14.414.916.5
Japan5.14.95.1
Germany3.93.84.3
India2.92.62.8
UK2.82.62.9
France2.72.62.9
Italy2.01.82.1
Brazil1.81.41.4
a:actual p: projection
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook